Another analysis of Valve's tactics

[delo0041]

I don't know if anyone else has mentioned this or not, but since the first reviews will start trickling in soon, Valve will be exerting pressure on another front as well. By allowing selected media to review HL2 without a firm release date, Valve could be hoping to co-opt Vivendi by generating huge amounts of buzz (assuming HL2 is reviewed well). Moreso than CS:Source on Steam, IMO, glowing HL2 reviews appeal to casual gamers and represent a large revenue block for Valve and Vivendi. If Valve is the only one making money off of HL2 sales via Steam at the time the reviews come out, Vivendi will be in a difficult spot. Vivendi's only choices would be to (1) release HL2, (2) not release HL2 and let Valve collect on Steam, or (3) not release HL2 and try to force a temporary shutdown of Steam...which would put the ball in Valve's court. In any case, Valve must be extremely confident in HL2 or they wouldn't attempt these types of tactics.

 

[Petabyte]

I don't understand why people think VU will sit on Half-Life 2 for six months or any time at all. They're too smart for something so stupid.

 

[JFry]

I think people are reading too much into the legal battle. It isn't really in vivendi's interest publicly, financially, or legally (although the last one may not really matter) to delay the release. I think they are actually doing legit bug squashing and nothing more.

 

[hasan]

maybe, lets hope so.

but still, assuming our doubts in VU's intents are correct, there is another thing valve might be doing.

The gold version has all kinds of materials that must be delivered to a specific address. The question is, who is gonna do the shipping? They could tell VUG "look, if you release the game, we'll let you handle the shipping, if you don't, we'll figure out another company to it"

just maybe ..

 

[f|uke]

I believe VU was seriously considering stalling till 2005. You may think this is somehow stupid, but HL2 will sell tons of copies whenever it comes out. VU needs to recoup on the other games its publishing as well, and with a monster like HL2 on the loose, that means a lot less of the other PC games will be sold. And that way, it secures a solid income in the early part of 2005, when less games are sold.

VU has stalled titles many times before. The fact that HL2 is so big doesn't change. The numbers are bigger but the rules of engagement are the same.

They could tell VUG "look, if you release the game, we'll let you handle the shipping, if you don't, we'll figure out another company to it"

eh, no. VALVe and VU are not on friendly terms. VALVe is going to do as little buisness with them as possible. The shipping will be done by UPS/FedEx/USMail. The packaging will be done by some merchandising company, not a game publisher.

 

[epmode]

The question is, who is gonna do the shipping?

ups, perhaps? it's not like they'll be selling millions of gold packages. it's entirely feasable to do it themselves, with no distributer.

 

[hasan]

maybe, I don't really know alot about shipping, but I just guessed valve could use that to sorta tease VU or tempt them to release it .. ofcourse in addition to all the other things.

 

[Jakeic]

what do you mean they aren't sitting on it, it has been over 2 weeks since the RC was sent to VU and there has been no word on the matter since.

 

[KagePrototype]

what do you mean they aren't sitting on it, it has been over 2 weeks since the RC was sent to VU and there has been no word on the matter since.

They don't need to keep us informed, you know. These RC periods can go through quite a few game copies. Just get some patience.

 

[f|uke]

maybe, I don't really know alot about shipping, but I just guessed valve could use that to sorta tease VU or tempt them to release it .. ofcourse in addition to all the other things.

The only offer VU is getting from VALVe is the ol' one finger salute. VU has to release HL2 now,. no other incentives required. VU is no longer saving the market for their other games, and they will be losing HL2 customers to Steam at an incredible rate.

 

[delo0041]

re: politics

IMHO, this whole affair appears to be a solid game of hardball politics and negotiation. When a high-profile title like HL2 is being reviewed before a solid release date is on the calendar, it's no accident. Valve does need a publisher, of course, because not everyone has broadband and fewer still have steam. I don't know the ins and outs of Vivendi and Valve's agreements, but I suspect they'll shake hands and grin for the public once they iron out their differences. And I think they will. Organizations are, for the most part, risk-averse, but Valve knows it's in the rare position to realize financial gains and use that to renegotiate their publishing contracts with Vivendi. So it may not be as risky a move as it seems. They could lose big if Vivendi finds a way to delay or shut down the release of CS:Source on steam, but it seems unlikely if CS isn't covered IP in their contracts (Is it covered? I can't remember.). And while Vivendi is completely capable of delaying the retail release of HL2, it's in neither organizations' best interest to do so. The reviews, assuming they're of the "best game ever" variety, and steam release of CS:Source give Valve the advantage, IMO. They are just bargaining chips to use in negotiation. And like I said before, I think that because of this advantage, we'll likely see Valve and Vivendi make up and appear to be in a magically harmonious business relationship...perhaps in the next two weeks.

Of course, I know I could end up being wrong and blah blah blah, but I love to speculate. Fun stuff. Except for not having HL2 yet