Item Drop Statistics!

[Operational]

Just saw this on the steam forums, easily the most detailed and accurate statistics on item drop rates we have.

These stats are gathered out of ~2600 players and more than 37100 item drops.

Conclusion:

>All non hat items have the same drop chance ~5.5%

>Each individual hat has a 0.05% chance to drop.
>All hats together have a (9 hats a 0.05% = ) 0.45% drop chance.
>Means: Every 222nd drop is a hat.

Drop rate:

About a 1/4th chance every 25 minutes. And yes, this means the average player will get one hat about every 2 weeks [of play time].

Hat Chance Over Time:

[SIZE="3"]Hours ____ Chance you have gotten at least 1 Hat
 100 _____ ~24%
 200 _____ ~42%
 300 _____ ~56%
 400 _____ ~66%
 500 _____ ~74%
 600 _____ ~80%
 700 _____ ~85%
 800 _____ ~89%
 900 _____ ~91%
1000 _____ ~93%[/SIZE]

http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showthread.php?t=883145

 

[Omnomnick]

Wow, this is actually pretty useful. So around 1000 hours = 100% or so of getting a hat? Ouch. I've only been playing about 400 hours since release!

 

[Operational]

So around 1000 hours = 100% or so of getting a hat? Ouch.

1000 hours for a 93% chance of getting at least one hat. But yeah, ouch for the 7% who don't get a hat after 1000 hours. Makes me appreciate the Hat I was lucky enough to get. Also makes me wonder if hats will be part of the system Valve is going to put into place that allows people to work towards items.

 

[PerToon]

So around 1000 hours = 100% or so of getting a hat? Ouch.

I'm afraid that probability doesn't work like that. There will still be those without hat after thousands of hours. Anyway, finally some good stats.

 

[Sledgehammer]

Wow, this is actually pretty useful. So around 1000 hours = 100% or so of getting a hat? Ouch. I've only been playing about 400 hours since release!

This is incorrect. You cannot reach 100% percent, ever.

 

[Slug Advisor]

Mmyeah, I'm never getting a hat. I just barelky managed to get Bonk!

 

[barbarbarbarbar]

Damn i can't wait to get tf2 ! Hats are gonna own!

BTW:
You guys may have noticed my new avatar.And no that is not a penis.

 

[nurizeko]

Wow, now I feel lucky just to have gotten the batters helmet. Wish it had been the Pyro's beanie tho.

 

[Slug Advisor]

Mining Light would make me orgasm everything foreverest, and would make sense of this sentence.

 

[tesher06]

Please answer this.

I haven't played TF2 in ages, can anyone please explain what this drop thing is? Something new they implimented.

 

[FISHY CRACKERS]

I have a friend who's been in idle servers nonstop for like a week, i sent him the statistics to try to get him to stop. So far the only thing he's said is "I WANT THEM!". Damn panzy...

 

[PimpinPenguin]

Please answer this.

I haven't played TF2 in ages, can anyone please explain what this drop thing is? Something new they implimented.

It's a new feature Valve implemented with the Sniper/Spy update. All that happens is that while your playing you'll randomly pick up weapons or hats.

 

[Vegeta897]

This is incorrect. You cannot reach 100% percent, ever.

Except in an infinite amount of time. Then it would be 100%

Also you just said the word percent after using the % symbol.

 

[Adabiviak]

Well, if Valve was going for an even distribution, they did a good job about it.

 

[V-Man339]

Wow Valve, [sarcasm] ftw [sarcasm]

 

[The Monkey]

What hat?

 

[Shakermaker]

What hat?

http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/153543

 

[Kamikazie]

 

[Monkeh]

I still haven't got a single hat! Not that you need them or anything, but I'd have expected some after this much play-time.

 

[The Monkey]

Does one acquire hats through achievements? I first saw the hats in-game today on a medic and I thought some creepy German fetish cult had hacked Steam.

 

[Viperidae]

No, it's randommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

 

[Asknoone]

That is quite ridiculous; I want a ****ing hat.

 

[Lobster]

Knowing my luck I will get one for a class I rarely play!