Repent! The end Is Nigh in 2029 or 2039

MRG

MRG

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A 13 year old German school kid doing a science project for school, corrects NASA about an asteroid that has a slim chance of hitting earth.

NASA said 1 in 45,000 but a 13 year old said 1 in 450.

http://www.physorg.com/news127499715.html

-MRG
 
I hope I'm still alive so I can watch it crush me into a puddle of magma. Original and unique death sequence.
 
Yeah, well I'm seventeen and I say there's a 1 in 100 chance. Start building giant glass domes over your cities, bitches.
 
Yeah? Well, I have an 11" cock and I say we're ****ing doomed.


Chance we are all going to die:

yes /450
 
Whew, thats a relief, for a moment I thought an asteriod was gonna-

Oh.
 
Speak for yourself.

/me dons meteor-proof hat.
 
You're all reported for spam. Let that be a lesson to you.
 
So, a 1 in 450 chance? Whats that in a percentage?
Click to expand...


1/450 is like a 0.27% chance, roughly. Odds are better than winning the lottery though.
 
Gotcha. So if it was 1% happening, then are they saying that out of 100 near misses only 1 has the potential to be an impact?

(This has got to be the most duh Kerberos moment ever.)
 
K e r b e r o s said:
Gotcha. So if it was 1% happening, then are they saying that out of 100 near misses only 1 has the potential to be an impact?
Click to expand...

you got it. but see the thing is, it's about 1/4 of that much of a chance. 1 chance out of 450 near misses. However NASA has said it was 1 out of 45,000.

also, they have demonstrated an ability to stop asteroids from impacting Earth, and by this time, 2029/2039, they will certainly have the ability.


EDIT: Fixed error (nasa 45,000)
 
I've heard about them being able to destroy asteroids, but if an asteroid is just made up of Iron and Silicon, with a mass large enough to absorb at least one impact of a Nuclear Weapon ...

... could they take more then one Nuclear Hit?
 
NASA would've gotten away with it too, if it weren't for that meddling kid.
 
I saw a special on TV, and I don't remember it very well, so I can't say what they plan to do.

I'm sure they are constantly fleshing out ideas.

I think if there is an asteroid the size of I don't know.. lets say Mars coming at us, we better have a good idea. I'm not sure of the size of this predicted asteroid conflict though.

We should let Atari handle it. (That is a joke for old people)
 
and ..


The German tabloid Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported that German student Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam to calculate that the Apophis asteroid had a one-in-450 chance of colliding with Earth in 2036, a far greater likelihood than the one-in-45,000 chance NASA had given.

Marquardt reportedly came upon the new figure by taking into account the chance of Apophis having its trajectory altered by a collision with a satellite orbiting Earth.
Click to expand...

http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/04/16/science-apophis-schoolboy.html

still, 1 in 45,000 chance is a little too close for comfort
 
what this kid says doesnt make since anyway. how is a satellite going to stop a 21,000,000,000 kg asteroid moving at 30 km/s? even if it does hit a satellite, it would already be to close. I equate it to firing an artillery shell at a piece of paper and having it deflected.
 
A satellite could deflect the asteroid.

Maybe it'll hit the ISS with Russian cosmonauts inside.

The Russians deflected the Germans in WWII.

Maybe they'll deflect this asteroid whose trajectory is based on the theory of a German boy?






j/k
 
OTCEscape said:
what this kid says doesnt make since anyway. how is a satellite going to stop a 21,000,000,000 kg asteroid moving at 30 km/s? even if it does hit a satellite, it would already be to close. I equate it to firing an artillery shell at a piece of paper and having it deflected.
Click to expand...

If it hit a piece of paper coming out of the barrel, it would make a significant difference to it's trajectory a km away... do you follow?
 
sigh... here comes little ol' me to sort this mess out...

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/apr/HQ_08103_student_asteroid_calculations.html

RELEASE : 08-103


NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations


WASHINGTON -- The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036.

Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.

This student's conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote.

Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which remains at 1 in 45,000
Click to expand...

Basically this 13 year old just got an F in his science project...
 
so its a ball of iron 250m wide ?
what if we nuke it just one time? making it hurl into infinity ?

anyway, if this doesnt help, and we ARE going to die, dont forget to contact me to remind me for my 5 minute raping/robbing/drug spree before the damn thing hits...

-dodo
 
[Matt] said:
sigh... here comes little ol' me to sort this mess out...

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/apr/HQ_08103_student_asteroid_calculations.html



Basically this 13 year old just got an F in his science project...
Click to expand...

That contradicts the OP's article where it said that NASA said the kid was correct.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.
Click to expand...
 
Krynn72 said:
That contradicts the OP's article where it said that NASA said the kid was correct.
Click to expand...

That's probably saying that IF it does hit a sat, which they said it more than likely will not.
 
Krynn72 said:
That contradicts the OP's article where it said that NASA said the kid was correct.
Click to expand...

This article is utter bullshit. NASA doesn't calculate impact probabilities, the minor planets center does. NASA or ESA hasn't said anything except the debunking. This is incredibly silly, a schoolkid outsmarting NASA? I don't know what's worse, that some idiot actually wrote this or that the media and ten of thousands of people belived it.
 
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