UK Elections - Who Will/Would you vote for; Public Poll

[Solaris]

Please tell us who you will/would vote for, UK residents and our international members please join in too.

It is a public poll.

 

[Vegeta897]

I have no idea who these candidates are, but Plaid is the name of a band and Cymru is part of a song name.

 

[Solaris]

I voted labour becuase I am registered to vote in Lancashire, otherwise I think I'd vote for the SDLP or Sinn Fein if they had a chance in south Belfast.

 

[Eejit]

Holy crap, new poll carried out post-Debate 1.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2607

CON 33%(-4), LAB 28%(-3), LDEM 30%(+8)
On a uniform swing these figures would leave Labour the largest party, despite being in third place. The Lib Dems would have around about 100 seats. In reality though, it’s almost impossible to say how this would translate into an election result.

 

[Solaris]

Holy crap, new poll carried out post-Debate 1.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2607

It's going to be very very exciting.

 

[DEATHMASTER]

Democrats. Just because.

 

[Shakermaker]

Holy crap, new poll carried out post-Debate 1.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2607

It has been a while since the UK has had a coalition government. How are the relations between the LibDems and the Tories?

Btw percentages don't say that much in a constituency system though, do they? How does that work with polling?

 

[Solaris]

It has been a while since the UK has had a coalition government. How are the relations between the LibDems and the Tories?

Btw percentages don't say that much in a constituency system though, do they? How does that work with polling?

You're right they don't. It's very very hard to predict the outcome of a UK general election.

 

[Iron Kat]

I'm voting Liberal Democrats but the other party I'd vote for would be the Green Party.

 

[Mr Stabby]

Monster raving looney party.

 

[Solaris]

Laivasse, it says you'd vote BNP? You're one of our more rational posters here, I find it hard to believe you were being serious there.

 

[ríomhaire]

Official Monster Raving Loony Party because I know next to nothing about British politics except for a couple of names.

Edit: Is it true that in UK elections when you vote you only put down one candidate to vote for? That's kind of gay.

 

[Laivasse]

Laivasse, it says you'd vote BNP? You're one of our more rational posters here, I find it hard to believe you were being serious there.

It's a protest vote. I want to register my disgust towards politicians collectively, for creating a situation where there are so many non-whites walking around.

 

[<RJMC>]

in which party is mrs bean?

 

[Dynasty]

Lib Dems are going to be the biggest change, and change is what the UK needs.

I can see the Live Debates changing the statistics. But then again, all the stats Ive seen on who will be voting for who are based on 10,000 responses from an online poll...which basically doesnt represent anything when theres 60-odd million people in the UK.

 

[Solaris]

It's a protest vote. I want to register my disgust towards politicians collectively, for creating a situation where there are so many non-whites walking around.

You have got to be joking?! An Irishman voting for the British national party? Have you no sense of national pride?

Also, who cares if non-whites are walking around, are you a rascist?

 

[Eejit]

I can see the Live Debates changing the statistics. But then again, all the stats Ive seen on who will be voting for who are based on 10,000 responses from an online poll...which basically doesnt represent anything when theres 60-odd million people in the UK.

The professional polls (ICM/YouGov/Populous/Ipsos Mori/ComRes etc) are weighted to be representative. Online public polls are indeed bullshit and to be ignored.

 

[Solaris]

Yes online polls are shit, but not becuase they only ask 10,000 people.

You could do a reasonable poll and only ask 5,000 people I imagine, given the number of constituencies.

 

[Eejit]

It's all to do with proper statistical weighting, this applies to any poll. And I said public online polls are crap, the polling companies sometimes run private online polls which are grand.

Weighting basically works like this: the polling company knows the makeup of he voting population due to census and voter registration data. They then compare this against the details of people they interview in the poll to find the difference.
For example say male:female ratio is 50:50 nationally. In their polling perhaps a lot of women are out (Mama Mia 2 in cinemas perhaps ), so they only get a ratio of 75:25 male:female responses to their phonecalls. In this case they would 'weight' the female responses 2x, while male responses .66x.
In practice it's a lot more complex, as they have to adjust the results for a whole series of criteria in addition to sex such as age, income, previous voting habits and more. Once they do this any sample over a few dozen or so can be made to be representative, though you would require numbers in the hundreds for an acceptable margin of error I believe.


Disclaimer: maths may not be 100% correct, but you get the idea.

 

[Asknoone]

Have you no sense of national pride?

Not a jot of it. What a worthless thing to have a sense of.

 

[Laivasse]

You have got to be joking?!

Clearly I am. A 'protest' vote for the BNP which actually agreed with their policies wouldn't actually be much of a protest vote. It would just be a vote

(BTW I'm an Englishman)

In seriousness I'm unlikely to be voting for anyone. I'm living in heathen lands and may not ever return to the UK, for one thing, so I feel like I'm not best placed to be worrying about the leadership of Britain. Furthermore I'm increasingly convinced that all the main parties are either completely unrepresentative of my interests (Labour and Con), or trying to win my vote through synthetic gimmicks and idealistic overtures, such as the pledge the Lib Dems have made to repeal the Digital Economy Act when in reality only a quarter of their party showed up to vote on it in the first place. The televised debates have failed to enthuse me in any way, because I feel they're playing to a public which is obsessed with soundbites and the cult of celebrity.

If I was still living in my old constituency I would just vote for whoever was most likely to unseat Labour. In the last election this was Respect, who got in next door to me in Bethnal Green & Bow. Where I was living, however, Labour still won by a mile through Stephen Timms - who coincidentally is the 'Minister for Digital Britain' and one of the biggest corrupt loudmouths in favour of the Digital Economy Act which I mentioned.

 

[Hectic Glenn]

I'm not really into talking about who I will vote for. I'm not faithful to any party nor can I say I will stick with my current opinion either.

Non-public next time, Hitler.

 

[Dynasty]

Yes online polls are shit, but not becuase they only ask 10,000 people.

You could do a reasonable poll and only ask 5,000 people I imagine, given the number of constituencies.

I just laughed out loud when I was watching *cringe* Sky News and saw the % figures of 31|35|24|10 , whilst underneath it said in small letters that the it was based on 1000-odd responses of a sky new website public poll.

And they were using those statistics as headings for their latest news.

Either way, I cant help but think people are going to cover their eyes and pick either Conservatives or Liberal Democrates at random, as either way it means getting Labour (aka Mr Brown) out of power.

 

[Sulkdodds]

Ordinarily I'd vote Lib Dems; I acknowledge they're not brilliant (though I do have a friend who makes a fairly convincing true believer) but would love to see a coalition government. This year, however, it looks like the Green Party might actually win in my constituency. That would send some message into Parliament, and I'm highly tempted to try and help it on its way. I've actually changed my constituency back to Brighton Pavillion from central Oxford - won't be living there much longer anyway.

 

[Eejit]

Some more polls out today;
YouGov – Con33/Lab30/LD29
BPIX - Con31/Lab28/LD32
ComRes - Con31/Lab27/LD29

And with the large majority of the fieldwork conducted prior to the debate, but after LD manifesto launch:
ICM - Con34/Lab29/LD27

Have fun with this:
http://www.fridgemagnet.org.uk/toys/dave-met.php

 

[Asknoone]

I'm not really into talking about who I will vote for. I'm not faithful to any party nor can I say I will stick with my current opinion either.

Non-public next time, Hitler.

Closet Conservative!

 

[Raziaar]

So I was watching Real Time with Bill Maher... and they're talking about Alternative Voting with Jesse Ventura. It's an idea I rather like. I youtubed it... and came up with this video of Gordon Brown in the Parliament.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfHqxxYVzu4

What in the hell at the Parliament. I think I've seen them in session before in video, but never like this. It's like a freaking classroom in there. Quite bizarre to look at. It makes our legislative branch look quite... hrm, I don't know how to describe it.

 

[nurizeko]

The Lib Dems for me, they're the only party that doesn't make me feel ill and if they can force Labour and Tories into a situation where they cant just do what they want willy-nilly and actually have to convince people to back their stupid ideas then great.

 

[Laivasse]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfHqxxYVzu4What in the hell at the Parliament. I think I've seen them in session before in video, but never like this. It's like a freaking classroom in there. Quite bizarre to look at. It makes our legislative branch look quite... hrm, I don't know how to describe it.

What you're seeing in that vid is an excerpt from the weekly session of Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs), a section of which is set aside for the leader of the opposition to pose some questions to the PM directly. It's degenerated into a meaningless public pantomime, in which each man tries to get in the most stinging barbs while each party clamours to contribute the most raucous support.

It's good to have a robust cut and thrust of debate imo, but that vid is a good example of how ineffectual parliament is and how out of touch most of its members are. The more image-fixated that our politics has become, the more commentators have started to go on about each leader's 'performance' during PMQs. Most normal people, however, either see through the pointlessness of it all, don't watch it at all, or are too bored by it to be influenced either way. The most useful part of PMQs is where ministers and backbenchers from all around the House get an opportunity to ask a question, usually in the hopes of raising the profile of a local constituency issue. Sadly this, too, is often pointless, since when faced with an inconvenient question the PM can simply dodge it or say 'I'll check the facts on that and get back to you later'.

He's far more happy to take questions from directly behind him, stuff along the lines of 'Prime Minister, could you please deal with the concerns of my constituents who want to know if you are an incarnation of Adonis, and why the contours of your buttocks can be likened unto the very cleft of God's jaw?' Broon can then take that as a chance to run through the shopping list of reasons of why 13 years of his party's increasingly unpopular govt have actually been the pinnacle of human achievement, about which only a terrorist-loving imbecile would dare complain.

EDIT: Actually I had a second watch of that clip and underneath the slanging match it was quite revealing and informative if you know the context. What's happening is that after over a decade in power without changing the electoral system, Labour have started pretending to be in favour of reform. This is an attempt to win over wavering Liberal Democrat voters, for whom electoral reform has long been an important issue. However the quote that Cameron reads out reveals that Brown has long opposed electoral reform, even while Tony Blair led the party. Brown's smacked-arse face after hearing this is priceless (3:07). The jeering and heckling in this session is probably all the louder due to the bald hypocrisy on display.

 

[Sulkdodds]

Reading your post I was going to argue something along the lines of your edit. What the hooting, hectoring 'debate' does demonstrate is that Brown cannot put any intellectual or ideological weight - any real belief - behind his sudden turnaround towards electoral reform. That being so, who can imagine he'd actually keep such a promise once in government?

Not that any party being unproblematically 'in government' is a certainty this time around.

By the way - can I ask if anyone knows good sources of political news and analysis? I've been looking for blogs to keep up on the election.

 

[Eejit]

My post (#4) has a link to a blog which is rather useful for tracking public opinion polls, and usually has an outline of any important events of the day.

 

[Eejit]

New poll out, showing Lib Dems in the lead.

CON 32%(-1), LAB 26%(-3), LDEM 33%(+4)
- figures in brackets are differences from this company's previous poll yesterday.

In terms of seats that would be:
Lab:247
Con:239
LD: 132

 

[pomegranate]

I am thick and keep seeing that sort of breakdown - please explain how that works Eejit.

 

[Nabobalis]

I would assume its a rough estimate of doing the number of seats in parliament times the percentage for that party. But maybe discounting Scotland and Welsh seats.

 

[Eejit]

I am thick and keep seeing that sort of breakdown - please explain how that works Eejit.

Basically our voting system massively favours the incumbents. Lib Dems would need 40% of the vote or more for a majority, the figure is much lower for the other two. It's all messed up. Labour can get least votes but have most seats depending on the split.
Very much depends on how these national polls apply to the marginals in different areas of the country though to say for sure.

 

[The Monkey]

The Lib Dems, probably.

Labour is most likely closer to my true beliefs, but they seem so old and dusty.

I've heard that the Lib Dems press for an electoral reform to a proportional system. I hope they have that as a condition for any form of support to either of the other parties after the election, if their support is needed to form a majority.

 

[NeptuneUK]

Lib Dem tbh

 

[pomegranate]

I was gonna go with the local TUSC candidate, cos I'm not really sure the Lib Dems have particularly strong coherent beliefs any more - plus their local candidate is a unelectable old duffer, and Labour are so entrenched in Salford it's not even funny. So, though I've supported the Lib Dems before, I was gonna go on political principal and vote for the TUSC guy who actually matches my views most closely, even though he's got even less chance of getting in. But now... even though the LD guy won't get in, I might vote for him anyway to add to the total national vote the LDs get, to contribute to the argument for proportional representation if they end up in third place irrespective of their popularity...

 

[Solaris]

TUSC? Trade union socialist coallition?

 

[pomegranate]

TUSC? Trade union socialist coallition?

Yeah.